The world right now is in a state of flux, with the war in Ukraine, Covid lockdowns in China and Hong Kong, and a rise in inflation and interest rates around the world. These factors make it very hard to predict how the world diamond industry will fare in the coming months. However, based on the performance of the recent past, I am optimistic that both demand and prices will remain high in the months ahead.
Let’s look at what we know. So far 2022 has continued the excellent results of 2021. The diamond industry had a very good first quarter in both polished and rough diamonds. Both demand and prices remained high, although in April we did see a small downward correction of prices.
It is certainly clear that the lack of Alrosa rough diamonds entering the market will be felt in the coming months. Although diamond inventories have increased in recent months, it is clear that they will again shrink due to the rough shortage that is certain to be felt in the coming months.
The expectation of a rough diamond shortage is already creating stability in polished prices. Increased demand due to the approaching wedding season in the United States will likely further push prices up.
I am an optimist by nature, but I believe that there are good reasons to be positive. I expect that the lively demand and high polished prices we have seen in 2021 and the beginning of 2022 will continue in the next few months.
Let us all pray that the world geopolitical and health situation will be solved as quickly as possible, to the benefit of those afflicted, and to us all.